Cone of Plausibility Wildcard Boundary Map
Classify scenarios inside or outside a caller-defined low-plausibility, high-impact cone and count outside wild cards.
Description
A plausibility-cone screen identifies supplied low-plausibility high-impact scenarios and separately counts their declared wild-card flags.
A plausibility-cone screen identifies supplied low-plausibility high-impact scenarios and separately counts their declared wild-card flags.1
The returned values include Cone assignments, Outside count, Outside wild cards. The How section below explains the calculation, input rules and interpretation.
When to use Cone of Plausibility Wildcard Boundary Map
Use Cone of Plausibility Wildcard Boundary Map when you need to evaluate the supplied records under the calculation and evidence rules below. The outside label is this explicit rule rather than a calculated geometric or probabilistic cone boundary.
Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
How to use Cone of Plausibility Wildcard Boundary Map and understand its results
- Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
- Enter highImpactThreshold, lowPlausibilityThresholdPercent, scenarioIds, scenarioMetrics, wildCardFlags using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
- Read assignments, outsideCount, wildCardOutsideCount. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
- If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type; see rules below | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| highImpactThreshold | High-impact threshold | number; minimum: 0 | Required |
| lowPlausibilityThresholdPercent | Low-plausibility threshold (percent) | number; minimum: 0 | Required |
| scenarioIds | Scenario IDs | list of string | Required |
| scenarioMetrics | Scenario metrics | list of list of number | Required |
| wildCardFlags | Wild-card flags | list of number | Required |
Require aligned nonempty nonblank IDs, two-value rows [plausibility0–100,nonnegative impact] and binary flags. Thresholds finite nonnegative; low threshold may exceed100. Trim IDs, preserve duplicates/order and return assignments and outside counts.
outside=plausibility≤lowThreshold AND impact≥highThreshold Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.
| Output field | Meaning | Value type |
|---|---|---|
| assignments | Cone assignments | list of string |
| outsideCount | Outside count | integer; minimum: 0 |
| wildCardOutsideCount | Outside wild cards | integer; minimum: 0 |
{
"input": {
"highImpactThreshold": 80,
"lowPlausibilityThresholdPercent": 20,
"scenarioIds": [
"Supply",
"Demand",
"Policy"
],
"scenarioMetrics": [
[
10,
90
],
[
50,
90
],
[
10,
50
]
],
"wildCardFlags": [
1,
0,
1
]
},
"output": {
"assignments": [
"Supply: outside",
"Demand: inside",
"Policy: inside"
],
"outsideCount": 1,
"wildCardOutsideCount": 1
}
}Limitations and assumptions
The outside label is this explicit rule rather than a calculated geometric or probabilistic cone boundary.
Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Core numeric and string lists are limited to 100,000 entries; text entries are subject to the general large-text limit. Follow any smaller calculation limits above. Matrices are limited to 128 rows and 128 entries per row. Missing fields without a declared default, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use Wild Cards Low Probability High Impact Register: Wild cards combine low assessed probability with high impact. Explicit thresholds determine which supplied events qualify. For a complementary task, use Voros Futures Cone Expansion Rings Lookup: A futures cone distinguishes several labeled possibilities around a central scenario. This tool formats caller-defined rings rather than deriving their plausibility.
References
Similar or alternative tools
- Wild Cards Low Probability High Impact Register
Wild cards combine low assessed probability with high impact. Explicit thresholds determine which supplied events qualify.
- Voros Futures Cone Expansion Rings Lookup
A futures cone distinguishes several labeled possibilities around a central scenario. This tool formats caller-defined rings rather than deriving their plausibility.