Wild Cards Low Probability High Impact Register

Classify caller-supplied events as low-probability, high-impact wild cards using explicit probability and impact thresholds.

Description

Wild cards combine low assessed probability with high impact.

Wild cards combine low assessed probability with high impact. Explicit thresholds determine which supplied events qualify.^[1]

The returned values include Wild-card candidates, Candidate IDs, Low-probability high-impact count. The How section below explains the calculation, input rules and interpretation.

When to use Wild Cards Low Probability High Impact Register

Use Wild Cards Low Probability High Impact Register when you need to evaluate the supplied records under the calculation and evidence rules below. No probability estimation or completeness of the event register is established.

Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.

How to use Wild Cards Low Probability High Impact Register and understand its results

Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
Enter highImpactThreshold, lowProbabilityThresholdPercent, wildCardIds, wildCardMetrics using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
Read candidateCount, candidateIds, lowProbabilityHighImpactCount. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.

Input field	Meaning	Value type; see rules below	Requirement
highImpactThreshold	High-impact threshold	number; minimum: 0	Required
lowProbabilityThresholdPercent	Low-probability threshold (percent)	number; minimum: 0	Required
wildCardIds	Wild-card IDs	list of string	Required
wildCardMetrics	Rows ordered as probability percent and impact.	list of list of number	Required

Use aligned nonempty IDs and two-value rows [probability percent, impact]. Trim nonblank IDs; require probability 0–100, nonnegative finite impact/thresholds. Threshold probability itself may exceed 100. Preserve order and duplicates; both returned counts equal selected IDs count.

candidate=probability≤lowThreshold AND impact≥highThreshold

Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.

Output field	Meaning	Value type
candidateCount	Wild-card candidates	integer; minimum: 0
candidateIds	Candidate IDs	list of string
lowProbabilityHighImpactCount	Low-probability high-impact count	integer; minimum: 0

json

{
  "input": {
    "highImpactThreshold": 80,
    "lowProbabilityThresholdPercent": 20,
    "wildCardIds": [
      "Supply shock",
      "Demand shift",
      "Minor delay"
    ],
    "wildCardMetrics": [
      [
        10,
        90
      ],
      [
        25,
        95
      ],
      [
        5,
        20
      ]
    ]
  },
  "output": {
    "candidateCount": 1,
    "candidateIds": [
      "Supply shock"
    ],
    "lowProbabilityHighImpactCount": 1
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

No probability estimation or completeness of the event register is established.

Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Core numeric and string lists are limited to 100,000 entries; text entries are subject to the general large-text limit. Follow any smaller calculation limits above. Matrices are limited to 128 rows and 128 entries per row. Missing fields without a declared default, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Use Cone of Plausibility Wildcard Boundary Map: A plausibility-cone screen identifies supplied low-plausibility high-impact scenarios and separately counts their declared wild-card flags. For a complementary task, use Black Swan Grey Rhino Dragon King Taxonomy: Black swan, grey rhino and dragon-king concepts distinguish different ways extreme events can arise or be overlooked. Short definitions do not conclusively classify an actual event.

References

Wild Cards Low Probability High Impact Register — tool.io

Similar or alternative tools

Cone of Plausibility Wildcard Boundary Map
A plausibility-cone screen identifies supplied low-plausibility high-impact scenarios and separately counts their declared wild-card flags.
Black Swan Grey Rhino Dragon King Taxonomy
Black swan, grey rhino and dragon-king concepts distinguish different ways extreme events can arise or be overlooked. Short definitions do not conclusively classify an actual event.