Intercensal Exponential Estimator
Fit the exponential growth model P(t) = P0 exp(r t) with r = ln(P1/P0)/n between two censuses and evaluate the population at any time inside the interval.
Description
Fit the exponential growth model P(t) = P0 exp(r t) with r = ln(P1/P0)/n between two censuses and evaluate the population at any time inside the interval.
Fit the exponential growth model P(t) = P0 exp(r t) with r = ln(P1/P0)/n between two censuses and evaluate the population at any time inside the interval.1
When to use Intercensal Exponential Estimator
Use this method when reconciling census counts, coverage, or intercensal components that share clearly stated reference dates and population definitions.
- P0
- Population at the earlier census.
- P1
- Population at the later census.
- Interval
- Years separating the two censuses.
- Elapsed t
- Years after the earlier census at which to estimate.
How the method works
- Growth rate
- Continuous annual growth rate r per year.
- Estimate
- Estimated population at the requested time.
Limitations and assumptions
Census-based estimates inherit omissions, duplications, age misstatement, boundary changes, and differences in reference dates. A small closure error does not prove that every component is complete or unbiased.
Alternative or Complementary measures
Compare the result with a post-enumeration survey, administrative registers, vital-statistics residual, or a second coverage method. Agreement between methods is more informative than a single closure estimate.
References
-
Census — Wikipedia contributors
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