Use this method when reconciling census counts, coverage, or intercensal components that share clearly stated reference dates and population definitions.

P1

Population at the beginning of the period.

P2 observed

Observed population at the end of the period.

Births

Births registered during the period.

Deaths

Deaths registered during the period.

Immigrants

In-migrants during the period.

Emigrants

Out-migrants during the period.

P2 expected

Expected end population from the balancing equation.

Closure error

Observed minus expected end population.

Closure error %

Closure error as a percent of the expected end population.

Census-based estimates inherit omissions, duplications, age misstatement, boundary changes, and differences in reference dates. A small closure error does not prove that every component is complete or unbiased.

Compare the result with a post-enumeration survey, administrative registers, vital-statistics residual, or a second coverage method. Agreement between methods is more informative than a single closure estimate.

• General Growth Balance Completeness

  Estimate the completeness of death registration from the aggregate general growth-balance identity B - D/c = r N, solved as c = D / (B - r N) using intercensal births, deaths, person-years and the annual growth rate.

• Post Enumeration Error Percent

  Express post-enumeration survey coverage as the census count relative to a dual-system estimate, reporting the coverage ratio and the net undercount percent where positive values indicate underenumeration.

• Bennett Horiuchi Death Distribution Method

  Estimate death-registration completeness with the Bennett-Horiuchi synthetic extinct generations method: discount reported deaths above a base age back over the interval with the stable-population growth rate and compare their sum to intercensal person-years lived above that age.