Population Growth From Laying Rate Estimator
Project delayed brood cohorts into expected adult population with caller development lag and conditional survival; no embedded worker-development duration, swarming or migration model.
Description
Adult-population scenarios combine survival of current adults with emergence from earlier egg cohorts.
Adult-population scenarios combine survival of current adults with emergence from earlier egg cohorts. A development lag separates today's laying from today's expected adult emergence.1
Project delayed brood cohorts into expected adult population with caller development lag and conditional survival; no embedded worker-development duration, swarming or migration model.
When to use Population Growth From Laying Rate Estimator
Use this tool to project delayed brood cohorts into expected adult population with caller development lag and conditional survival; no embedded worker-development duration, swarming or migration model.
Prepare the hive, sample or operating measurements and any supplied target values. Confirm units, timing and whether counts or masses refer to the same population or batch.
How to use Population Growth From Laying Rate Estimator and understand its results
- Prepare the hive, sample or operating measurements and any supplied target values. Confirm units, timing and whether counts or masses refer to the same population or batch.
- Enter initialAdultBees, developmentLagDays, priorDailyEggCounts, forecastDailyEggCounts, emergenceSurvivalFraction, adultDailySurvivalFraction using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
- Read emergingBeesByDay, expectedAdultBeesByDay. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
- If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type; see rules below | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| initialAdultBees | Initial adult bees | number | Required |
| developmentLagDays | Development lag days | integer | Required |
| priorDailyEggCounts | Prior daily egg counts | list of number | Required |
| forecastDailyEggCounts | Forecast daily egg counts | list of number | Required |
| emergenceSurvivalFraction | Emergence survival fraction | number | Required |
| adultDailySurvivalFraction | Adult daily survival fraction | number | Required |
Enter nonnegative initial adults and daily egg cohorts, a positive integer development lag, exactly one prior cohort per lag day and a nonempty forecast list. Survival fractions lie in [0,1]. Use prior cohorts first, then forecast eggs shifted by the lag, updating adults after daily survival. Return emergence and expected adults for each forecast day.
emerging_i = laggedEggs_i × emergenceSurvival; adults_i = previousAdults × dailySurvival + emerging_i Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.
| Output field | Meaning | Value type |
|---|---|---|
| emergingBeesByDay | Emerging bees by day | list of number |
| expectedAdultBeesByDay | Expected adult bees by day | list of number |
{
"input": {
"initialAdultBees": 100,
"developmentLagDays": 2,
"priorDailyEggCounts": [
10,
20
],
"forecastDailyEggCounts": [
30,
40,
50
],
"emergenceSurvivalFraction": 0.5,
"adultDailySurvivalFraction": 0.9
},
"output": {
"emergingBeesByDay": [
5,
10,
15
],
"expectedAdultBeesByDay": [
95,
95.5,
100.95
]
}
}Limitations and assumptions
Expected counts can be fractional. Development time and survival are supplied constants; migration, swarming, disease and changing age structure are excluded. This is a model scenario rather than a validated colony forecast.
Numeric inputs must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Numeric lists are limited to 100,000 entries; the rules above may require smaller limits. Missing required fields, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use Queen Laying Rate Eggs Per Day: Infer interval laying from cumulative observed eggs plus independently supplied egg-loss corrections; migration, unobserved brood and colony-wide representativeness are external. For a complementary task, use Sealed Brood Area Population Estimate: Estimate sealed cells and expected viable emergence from disjoint measured brood areas and caller cell-density/viability calibration; not a fixed frame population lookup.
References
Similar or alternative tools
- Queen Laying Rate Eggs Per Day
Infer interval laying from cumulative observed eggs plus independently supplied egg-loss corrections; migration, unobserved brood and colony-wide representativeness are external.
- Sealed Brood Area Population Estimate
Estimate sealed cells and expected viable emergence from disjoint measured brood areas and caller cell-density/viability calibration; not a fixed frame population lookup.