Premortem Prospective Hindsight Failure Checker

Check whether every caller-supplied premortem failure mode has both a linked warning signal and mitigation.

Description

A premortem anticipates failure and links each failure to warning signals and mitigations.

A premortem anticipates failure and links each failure to warning signals and mitigations. Text coverage does not establish that mitigations work.^[1]

The returned values include Failure reviews, Fully reviewed failure modes, Uncovered failure modes. The How section below explains the calculation, input rules and interpretation.

When to use Premortem Prospective Hindsight Failure Checker

Use Premortem Prospective Hindsight Failure Checker when you need to evaluate the supplied records under the calculation and evidence rules below. No failure probabilities, mitigation effectiveness or warning monitoring is provided.

Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.

How to use Premortem Prospective Hindsight Failure Checker and understand its results

Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
Enter failureModes, mitigations, warningSignals using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
Read failureReviews, fullyReviewedFailureCount, uncoveredFailureModes. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.

Input field	Meaning	Value type; see rules below	Requirement
failureModes	Failure modes	list of string	Required
mitigations	Entries in failureMode\|mitigation form.	list of string	Required
warningSignals	Entries in failureMode\|warningSignal form.	list of string	Required

Require unique trimmed nonblank failure modes. Warning/mitigation lists may be empty. Parse each link as failure, pipe, nonblank detail using the helper; match failure keys exactly after trim, collect distinct details, and report reviews, count and uncovered failures.

reviewed=failure has warning link AND mitigation link

Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.

Output field	Meaning	Value type
failureReviews	Failure reviews	list of string
fullyReviewedFailureCount	Fully reviewed failure modes	integer; minimum: 0
uncoveredFailureModes	Uncovered failure modes	list of string

json

{
  "input": {
    "failureModes": [
      "Demand fails",
      "Supply delays"
    ],
    "mitigations": [
      "Demand fails|pre-contract customers",
      "Supply delays|dual-source critical parts"
    ],
    "warningSignals": [
      "Demand fails|pilot conversion below target",
      "Supply delays|lead times increase"
    ]
  },
  "output": {
    "failureReviews": [
      "Demand fails: warning=covered; mitigation=covered",
      "Supply delays: warning=covered; mitigation=covered"
    ],
    "fullyReviewedFailureCount": 2,
    "uncoveredFailureModes": []
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

No failure probabilities, mitigation effectiveness or warning monitoring is provided.

Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Core numeric and string lists are limited to 100,000 entries; text entries are subject to the general large-text limit. Follow any smaller calculation limits above. Missing fields without a declared default, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Use Early Warning Signposts Per Scenario Generator: Scenario signposts identify observations that could prompt reassessment. Coverage checks whether each scenario has a linked detail. For a complementary task, use Red Team Devils Advocate Assumption Attack Protocol: An assumption attack protocol prompts reviewers to challenge a scenario in several ways. Pair generation does not itself falsify an assumption.

References

Premortem Prospective Hindsight Failure Checker — tool.io

Similar or alternative tools

Early Warning Signposts Per Scenario Generator
Scenario signposts identify observations that could prompt reassessment. Coverage checks whether each scenario has a linked detail.
Red Team Devils Advocate Assumption Attack Protocol
An assumption attack protocol prompts reviewers to challenge a scenario in several ways. Pair generation does not itself falsify an assumption.