Patent Signal Trend
Measure annualized patent-count growth against an emerging-signal threshold.
Description
Annualized patent-count growth summarizes a supplied count change over a time interval.
Annualized patent-count growth summarizes a supplied count change over a time interval. Zero recent count represents complete decline.1
Measure annualized patent-count growth against an emerging-signal threshold.
When to use Patent Signal Trend
Use this tool to measure annualized patent-count growth against an emerging-signal threshold.
Prepare the recorded observations, ratings, assumptions or expected/observed lists requested. Choose thresholds and definitions appropriate to the planning question.
How to use Patent Signal Trend and understand its results
- Prepare the recorded observations, ratings, assumptions or expected/observed lists requested. Choose thresholds and definitions appropriate to the planning question.
- Enter earlierPatentCount, recentPatentCount, periodYears, signalGrowthThresholdPercent using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
- Read annualizedGrowthPercent, absoluteGrowth, emergingSignal. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
- If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type; see rules below | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| earlierPatentCount | Earlier-period patent count | integer; minimum: 0 | Required |
| recentPatentCount | Recent-period patent count | integer; minimum: 0 | Required |
| periodYears | Years between periods (years) | number; minimum: 0 | Required |
| signalGrowthThresholdPercent | Signal growth threshold (%) | number | Required |
Enter positive earlier count/years, nonnegative integer recent count and finite signed growth threshold. Return annualized growth, signed count change and inclusive emerging flag.
growth%=100[(recent/earlier)^(1/years)−1] Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.
| Output field | Meaning | Value type |
|---|---|---|
| annualizedGrowthPercent | Annualized patent growth (%) | number |
| absoluteGrowth | Absolute patent-count growth | integer |
| emergingSignal | Growth meets supplied signal threshold | boolean |
{
"input": {
"earlierPatentCount": 100,
"recentPatentCount": 121,
"periodYears": 2,
"signalGrowthThresholdPercent": 10
},
"output": {
"annualizedGrowthPercent": 10.000000000000009,
"absoluteGrowth": 21,
"emergingSignal": true
}
}Limitations and assumptions
No patent database, innovation quality, comparability or emerging technology is verified.
Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Missing required fields, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors. A successfully returned false flag is an evaluated outcome; its meaning is explained above.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use Trend Scale Classifier: Classify an observed signal with caller-defined duration and reach thresholds. For a complementary task, use Scanning Hit Score: Combine four caller ratings into a transparent scanning-hit priority score.
References
-
Patent Signal Trend — tool.io
Similar or alternative tools
- Trend Scale Classifier
Classify an observed signal with caller-defined duration and reach thresholds.
- Scanning Hit Score
Combine four caller ratings into a transparent scanning-hit priority score.