Official Future Shadow Scenario Set Builder

Assemble a primary scenario and caller-supplied shadow scenarios into a labeled set with coherence checks.

Description

A shadow scenario challenges assumptions of a primary future.

A shadow scenario challenges assumptions of a primary future. Each scenario still needs a separate coherence review.^[1]

The returned values include Coherence checks, Scenario count, Scenario labels, Scenario set narrative. The How section below explains the calculation, input rules and interpretation.

When to use Official Future Shadow Scenario Set Builder

Use Official Future Shadow Scenario Set Builder when you need to evaluate the supplied records under the calculation and evidence rules below. The consistencyChecks are questions, not evaluated checks or proof of coherence.

Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.

How to use Official Future Shadow Scenario Set Builder and understand its results

Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
Enter primaryScenario, shadowScenarios using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
Read consistencyChecks, scenarioCount, scenarioLabels, setNarrative. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.

Input field	Meaning	Value type; see rules below	Requirement
primaryScenario	Primary scenario	string	Required
shadowScenarios	Shadow scenarios	list of string	Required

Trim nonblank primary and nonempty nonblank shadows. Reject any exact trimmed shadow equal to primary; duplicate shadows are allowed. Return labels Primary/Shadow1… and fixed coherence prompts plus narrative.

count=1+shadowScenarios.length

Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.

Output field	Meaning	Value type
consistencyChecks	Coherence checks	list of string
scenarioCount	Scenario count	integer; minimum: 2
scenarioLabels	Scenario labels	list of string
setNarrative	Scenario set narrative	string

json

{
  "input": {
    "primaryScenario": "Demand accelerates",
    "shadowScenarios": [
      "Supply constraints persist",
      "Adoption stalls locally"
    ]
  },
  "output": {
    "consistencyChecks": [
      "Check whether 'Supply constraints persist' remains internally coherent without borrowing assumptions from 'Demand accelerates'.",
      "Check whether 'Adoption stalls locally' remains internally coherent without borrowing assumptions from 'Demand accelerates'."
    ],
    "scenarioCount": 3,
    "scenarioLabels": [
      "Primary",
      "Shadow 1",
      "Shadow 2"
    ],
    "setNarrative": "The set pairs the primary scenario, 'Demand accelerates', with 2 shadow scenarios selected to test plausibility, coherence, and strategic response."
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

The consistencyChecks are questions, not evaluated checks or proof of coherence.

Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Core numeric and string lists are limited to 100,000 entries; text entries are subject to the general large-text limit. Follow any smaller calculation limits above. Extremely large text inputs are rejected. Missing fields without a declared default, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Use Scenario Consistency Driver Coherence Checker: A scenario coherence check can expose opposing signs assigned to the same outcome within a shared driver group. Neutral signs do not contradict active signs. For a complementary task, use Probable Plausible Preferable Scenario Sorter: Plausibility and desirability answer different questions about a scenario. Rankings should retain that distinction.

References

Official Future Shadow Scenario Set Builder — tool.io

Similar or alternative tools

Scenario Consistency Driver Coherence Checker
A scenario coherence check can expose opposing signs assigned to the same outcome within a shared driver group. Neutral signs do not contradict active signs.
Probable Plausible Preferable Scenario Sorter
Plausibility and desirability answer different questions about a scenario. Rankings should retain that distinction.