Probable Plausible Preferable Scenario Sorter

Rank scenarios by supplied plausibility scores and independently select the most desirable and most plausible scenario with stable tie order.

Description

Plausibility and desirability answer different questions about a scenario.

Plausibility and desirability answer different questions about a scenario. Rankings should retain that distinction.^[1]

The returned values include Most desirable scenario, Most plausible scenario, Plausibility ranking. The How section below explains the calculation, input rules and interpretation.

When to use Probable Plausible Preferable Scenario Sorter

Use Probable Plausible Preferable Scenario Sorter when you need to evaluate the supplied records under the calculation and evidence rules below. Scores are not necessarily probabilities and no objective desirability is inferred.

Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.

How to use Probable Plausible Preferable Scenario Sorter and understand its results

Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
Enter desirabilityScores, plausibilityScores, scenarioIds using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
Read mostDesirableScenario, mostPlausibleScenario, rankedByPlausibility. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.

Input field	Meaning	Value type; see rules below	Requirement
desirabilityScores	Desirability scores	list of number	Required
plausibilityScores	Plausibility scores	list of number	Required
scenarioIds	Scenario IDs	list of string	Required

Require aligned nonempty scenario IDs and finite signed scores on caller-defined scales. Trim nonblank IDs; duplicates are allowed. Use stable descending sorts; ties retain original input order. Return plausibility ranking and independently best desirable/plausible IDs.

rank descending plausibility; independently maximize desirability

Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.

Output field	Meaning	Value type
mostDesirableScenario	Most desirable scenario	string
mostPlausibleScenario	Most plausible scenario	string
rankedByPlausibility	Plausibility ranking	list of string

json

{
  "input": {
    "desirabilityScores": [
      9,
      5,
      7
    ],
    "plausibilityScores": [
      0.8,
      0.6,
      0.7
    ],
    "scenarioIds": [
      "Rapid transition",
      "Stagnation",
      "Managed transition"
    ]
  },
  "output": {
    "mostDesirableScenario": "Rapid transition",
    "mostPlausibleScenario": "Rapid transition",
    "rankedByPlausibility": [
      "Rapid transition",
      "Managed transition",
      "Stagnation"
    ]
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

Scores are not necessarily probabilities and no objective desirability is inferred.

Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Core numeric and string lists are limited to 100,000 entries; text entries are subject to the general large-text limit. Follow any smaller calculation limits above. Missing fields without a declared default, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Use Strategy Robustness Across Quadrants Score: Robustness across scenarios requires every supplied quadrant to satisfy chosen payoff and risk criteria. Good averages can conceal a weak quadrant. For a complementary task, use Scenario Planning Two-Axis Quadrant Builder: A two-axis scenario grid separates combinations of high and low coordinates. Explicit midpoints control quadrant membership.

References

Probable Plausible Preferable Scenario Sorter — tool.io

Similar or alternative tools

Strategy Robustness Across Quadrants Score
Robustness across scenarios requires every supplied quadrant to satisfy chosen payoff and risk criteria. Good averages can conceal a weak quadrant.
Scenario Planning Two-Axis Quadrant Builder
A two-axis scenario grid separates combinations of high and low coordinates. Explicit midpoints control quadrant membership.