Longtermism Xrisk Prioritization Frame Lookup
Apply a transparent longtermism-style frame to caller-supplied impact, urgency, reversibility, scope, and horizon values.
Description
Long-horizon risk prioritization can expose irreversible and widespread consequences.
Long-horizon risk prioritization can expose irreversible and widespread consequences. The weights here are explicit illustrative assumptions.1
The returned values include Frame guidance, Priority score, Score factors. The How section below explains the calculation, input rules and interpretation.
When to use Longtermism Xrisk Prioritization Frame Lookup
Use Longtermism Xrisk Prioritization Frame Lookup when you need to evaluate the supplied records under the calculation and evidence rules below. No event probability, cost effectiveness or universally accepted ethical ranking is established.
Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
How to use Longtermism Xrisk Prioritization Frame Lookup and understand its results
- Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
- Enter impactScore, planningHorizonYears, reversibility, riskScope, urgencyScore using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
- Read frameGuidance, priorityScore, scoreFactors. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
- If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type; see rules below | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| impactScore | Impact score | number; minimum: 0; maximum: 100 | Required |
| planningHorizonYears | Planning horizon years | number; minimum: 0 | Required |
| reversibility | Reversibility | string; one of "irreversible", "hardToReverse", "reversible" | Required |
| riskScope | Risk scope | string; one of "civilization", "global", "regional", "local" | Required |
| urgencyScore | Urgency score | number; minimum: 0; maximum: 100 | Required |
Require impact/urgency0–100, finite nonnegative horizon and exact labels. Reversibility factors are irreversible1.25/hardToReverse1.1/reversible1; scope factors civilization1.25/global1.15/regional1.05/local1. Return capped finite score, factor strings and fixed guidance.
score=min(100,mean(impact,urgency)×reversibilityFactor×scopeFactor×min(1.1,1+horizon/1000)) Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.
| Output field | Meaning | Value type |
|---|---|---|
| frameGuidance | Frame guidance | string |
| priorityScore | Priority score | number; minimum: 0; maximum: 100 |
| scoreFactors | Score factors | list of string |
{
"input": {
"impactScore": 90,
"planningHorizonYears": 500,
"reversibility": "irreversible",
"riskScope": "civilization",
"urgencyScore": 40
},
"output": {
"frameGuidance": "Use the frame to make irreversible, large-scale, and long-horizon effects visible while still testing near-term harms, affected people, and intervention evidence.",
"priorityScore": 100,
"scoreFactors": [
"impact=90",
"urgency=40",
"reversibility=irreversible",
"scope=civilization",
"horizonYears=500"
]
}
}Limitations and assumptions
No event probability, cost effectiveness or universally accepted ethical ranking is established.
Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Extremely large text inputs are rejected. Missing fields without a declared default, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use Global Catastrophic Risk Scenario Register Lookup: A catastrophic-risk register needs an explicit scenario, category and horizon. Organizing an entry does not assign its probability. For a complementary task, use Existential Risk Category Taxonomy Lookup: Risk taxonomies help distinguish pathways and mechanisms before evaluating severity. A category definition does not quantify the probability or scale of a particular scenario.
References
Similar or alternative tools
- Global Catastrophic Risk Scenario Register Lookup
A catastrophic-risk register needs an explicit scenario, category and horizon. Organizing an entry does not assign its probability.
- Existential Risk Category Taxonomy Lookup
Risk taxonomies help distinguish pathways and mechanisms before evaluating severity. A category definition does not quantify the probability or scale of a particular scenario.