Finite Resource Growth Horizon
Estimate a finite-stock depletion horizon under constant geometric consumption growth.
Description
Finite-stock depletion under geometric annual use assumes a fixed stock and sustained nonnegative growth.
Finite-stock depletion under geometric annual use assumes a fixed stock and sustained nonnegative growth. The formula interpolates a horizon rather than simulating integer-year withdrawals.1
Estimate a finite-stock depletion horizon under constant geometric consumption growth.
When to use Finite Resource Growth Horizon
Use this tool to estimate a finite-stock depletion horizon under constant geometric consumption growth.
Prepare the recorded observations, ratings, assumptions or expected/observed lists requested. Choose thresholds and definitions appropriate to the planning question.
How to use Finite Resource Growth Horizon and understand its results
- Prepare the recorded observations, ratings, assumptions or expected/observed lists requested. Choose thresholds and definitions appropriate to the planning question.
- Enter resourceStock, initialAnnualUse, annualGrowthRatePercent using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
- Read depletionHorizonYears. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
- If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type; see rules below | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| resourceStock | Resource stock | number; minimum: 0 | Required |
| initialAnnualUse | Initial annual use | number; minimum: 0 | Required |
| annualGrowthRatePercent | Annual use growth rate (%) | number; minimum: 0 | Required |
Enter nonnegative stock/growth percent and positive initial annual use. Return finite modeled years; zero stock gives zero.
horizon=ln(1+stock×growth/use)/ln(1+growth); zero growth→stock/use Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.
| Output field | Meaning | Value type |
|---|---|---|
| depletionHorizonYears | Depletion horizon (years) | number; minimum: 0 |
{
"input": {
"resourceStock": 1000,
"initialAnnualUse": 50,
"annualGrowthRatePercent": 2
},
"output": {
"depletionHorizonYears": 16.991292700142097
}
}Limitations and assumptions
No resource discovery, replenishment, prices or changing demand is modeled.
Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Missing required fields, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use Data-Center Power Forecast: Forecast data-center power demand against supplied grid capacity. For a complementary task, use State of the Future Index: Calculate a caller-defined weighted percent-change index from aligned indicators.
References
-
Finite Resource Growth Horizon — tool.io
Similar or alternative tools
- Data-Center Power Forecast
Forecast data-center power demand against supplied grid capacity.
- State of the Future Index
Calculate a caller-defined weighted percent-change index from aligned indicators.