Delphi Method Round Consensus Convergence Tracker
Track caller-supplied Delphi round medians and spreads and report convergence when the final spread meets an explicit threshold.
Description
Delphi rounds can be summarized by already computed medians and spreads.
Delphi rounds can be summarized by already computed medians and spreads. This tracker defines convergence solely by the final spread.1
The returned values include Consensus converged, Final median, Final spread, Rounds completed. The How section below explains the calculation, input rules and interpretation.
When to use Delphi Method Round Consensus Convergence Tracker
Use Delphi Method Round Consensus Convergence Tracker when you need to evaluate the supplied records under the calculation and evidence rules below. No respondent aggregation or monotonic narrowing check is performed. A single round can satisfy the flag.
Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
How to use Delphi Method Round Consensus Convergence Tracker and understand its results
- Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
- Enter convergenceThreshold, roundMedians, roundSpreads using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
- Read converged, finalMedian, finalSpread, roundsCompleted. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
- If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type; see rules below | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| convergenceThreshold | Convergence threshold | number; minimum: 0 | Required |
| roundMedians | Round medians | list of number | Required |
| roundSpreads | Round spreads | list of number | Required |
Require aligned nonempty finite medians/nonnegative finite spreads and nonnegative finite threshold. Return final median/spread, round count and inclusive flag.
converged=lastSpread≤threshold Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.
| Output field | Meaning | Value type |
|---|---|---|
| converged | Consensus converged | boolean |
| finalMedian | Final median | number |
| finalSpread | Final spread | number; minimum: 0 |
| roundsCompleted | Rounds completed | integer; minimum: 1 |
{
"input": {
"convergenceThreshold": 5,
"roundMedians": [
55,
58,
60
],
"roundSpreads": [
12,
6,
3
]
},
"output": {
"converged": true,
"finalMedian": 60,
"finalSpread": 3,
"roundsCompleted": 3
}
}Limitations and assumptions
No respondent aggregation or monotonic narrowing check is performed. A single round can satisfy the flag.
Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Core numeric and string lists are limited to 100,000 entries; text entries are subject to the general large-text limit. Follow any smaller calculation limits above. Missing fields without a declared default, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors. A successfully returned false flag is an evaluated outcome; its meaning is explained above.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use Delphi Panel Recruitment Anonymity Protocol Lookup: A Delphi protocol separates recruitment identities from response reporting. Cohort-size thresholds provide an initial process screen. For a complementary task, use AGI Forecast Survey Median Calculator: A survey can contain a row of respondent median years for each forecast question. Pooling all entries differs from averaging the per-question medians.
References
Similar or alternative tools
- Delphi Panel Recruitment Anonymity Protocol Lookup
A Delphi protocol separates recruitment identities from response reporting. Cohort-size thresholds provide an initial process screen.
- AGI Forecast Survey Median Calculator
A survey can contain a row of respondent median years for each forecast question. Pooling all entries differs from averaging the per-question medians.