AGI Forecast Survey Median Calculator
Summarize caller-supplied AGI forecast respondent medians by question and across all responses.
Description
A survey can contain a row of respondent median years for each forecast question.
A survey can contain a row of respondent median years for each forecast question. Pooling all entries differs from averaging the per-question medians.1
The returned values include Overall median year, Question median assignments, Maximum respondents per question. The How section below explains the calculation, input rules and interpretation.
When to use AGI Forecast Survey Median Calculator
Use AGI Forecast Survey Median Calculator when you need to evaluate the supplied records under the calculation and evidence rules below. Maximum row length is not a count of distinct respondents. Unequal rows weight the pooled median by response count; no survey representativeness is established.
Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
How to use AGI Forecast Survey Median Calculator and understand its results
- Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
- Enter forecastQuestionIds, respondentMedianYears using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
- Read overallMedianYear, questionMedianAssignments, respondentCount. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
- If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type; see rules below | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| forecastQuestionIds | Forecast question IDs | list of string | Required |
| respondentMedianYears | A question-by-respondent matrix of median forecast years. | list of list of number | Required |
Require unique trimmed nonblank question IDs and matching nonempty rows of finite nonnegative years. Sort copies to compute median, averaging two central values for even counts. Return question assignments, pooled median and respondentCount equal to maximum row length.
questionMedian=median(row); overallMedian=median(all entries) Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.
| Output field | Meaning | Value type |
|---|---|---|
| overallMedianYear | Overall median year | number; minimum: 0 |
| questionMedianAssignments | Question median assignments | list of string |
| respondentCount | Maximum respondents per question | integer; minimum: 1 |
{
"input": {
"forecastQuestionIds": [
"agi-capability",
"agi-takeoff"
],
"respondentMedianYears": [
[
2040,
2050,
2060
],
[
2035,
2045,
2055
]
]
},
"output": {
"overallMedianYear": 2047.5,
"questionMedianAssignments": [
"agi-capability: 2050",
"agi-takeoff: 2045"
],
"respondentCount": 3
}
}Limitations and assumptions
Maximum row length is not a count of distinct respondents. Unequal rows weight the pooled median by response count; no survey representativeness is established.
Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Core numeric and string lists are limited to 100,000 entries; text entries are subject to the general large-text limit. Follow any smaller calculation limits above. Matrices are limited to 128 rows and 128 entries per row. Missing fields without a declared default, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use AI Alignment Timeline Debate Position Map: A forecast-position timeline organizes supplied labels and years. Its arithmetic mean is not a probability-weighted consensus forecast. For a complementary task, use Delphi Method Round Consensus Convergence Tracker: Delphi rounds can be summarized by already computed medians and spreads. This tracker defines convergence solely by the final spread.
References
-
AGI Forecast Survey Median Calculator — tool.io
Similar or alternative tools
- AI Alignment Timeline Debate Position Map
A forecast-position timeline organizes supplied labels and years. Its arithmetic mean is not a probability-weighted consensus forecast.
- Delphi Method Round Consensus Convergence Tracker
Delphi rounds can be summarized by already computed medians and spreads. This tracker defines convergence solely by the final spread.