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Evidence Order Dependence Flag Tool

Audit two supplied posterior results; no independence assumption or updating algorithm is inferred.

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Description

Return first-order-minus-second-order gap and differs when its magnitude strictly exceeds tolerance.

Evidence weights and credences are numerical representations under a chosen model. Likelihood ratios, probabilities, logarithmic weights and confidence bounds have different meanings; one local calculation does not establish the truth of a claim.

Return first-order-minus-second-order gap and differs when its magnitude strictly exceeds tolerance.

When to use this tool

Use Evidence Order Dependence Flag when you need an explicit evidence-weight or probability-consistency term.

How to use the tool and how it works

  1. Enter posteriorFirstOrder, posteriorSecondOrder, tolerance. Use the units and conventions below.
  2. Run the tool. Correct any format, range, or cross-field input error before interpreting the output.
  3. Read gap, differs. Inspect differs before interpreting the associated values.

Require both posteriors in [0, 1] and nonnegative tolerance. Return first-order-minus-second-order gap and differs when its magnitude strictly exceeds tolerance.1

Input fieldMeaning and unitsAccepted input
posteriorFirstOrderPosterior First OrderRequired. Finite number; minimum 0; maximum 1.
posteriorSecondOrderPosterior Second OrderRequired. Finite number; minimum 0; maximum 1.
toleranceToleranceRequired. Finite number; minimum 0.
Output fieldInterpretationReturned shape
gapDifference on the stated unit and subtraction basis.Required. Finite number.
differsDiffersRequired. Boolean.
json
{
  "input": {
    "posteriorFirstOrder": 0.6,
    "posteriorSecondOrder": 0.5,
    "tolerance": 0.05
  },
  "output": {
    "gap": 0.09999999999999998,
    "differs": true
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

  • Posteriors are supplied rather than calculated. A difference can diagnose a numerical/model convention without establishing irrationality or identifying its cause.
  • Inputs must satisfy both the field types and the cross-field conditions above. Invalid input causes an error; a successful false flag or documented placeholder is a different result.
  • Numeric calculations use binary floating point unless exact decimal-integer arithmetic is explicitly stated. No hidden measurement tolerance or decimal rounding is added; nonfinite or out-of-contract results are rejected. Numeric signed-zero results are exported as zero.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Evaluate source quality and the complete inference model. Check likelihood meaning, dependence, prior assumptions, normalization and uncertainty rather than substituting counts or weights for justified evidence.

References

  1. Calculation and input contract: epistemology/evidence-order-dependence-flag — tool.io

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