Description
Add priorLogOdds and logLikelihoodRatio.
Evidence weights and credences are numerical representations under a chosen model. Likelihood ratios, probabilities, logarithmic weights and confidence bounds have different meanings; one local calculation does not establish the truth of a claim.
Add priorLogOdds and logLikelihoodRatio.
When to use this tool
Use Credence Log Odds One Update Term when you need an explicit evidence-weight or probability-consistency term.
How to use the tool and how it works
- Enter priorLogOdds, logLikelihoodRatio. Use the units and conventions below.
- Run the tool. Correct any format, range, or cross-field input error before interpreting the output.
- Read posteriorLogOdds, posterior. Use the output convention below.
Add priorLogOdds and logLikelihoodRatio. Convert their sum with a sign-stable logistic expression to posterior probability.1
| Input field | Meaning and units | Accepted input |
|---|---|---|
| priorLogOdds | Natural-log prior odds. | Required. Finite number. |
| logLikelihoodRatio | Natural-log likelihood ratio, not base-10 log evidence. | Required. Finite number. |
| Output field | Interpretation | Returned shape |
|---|---|---|
| posteriorLogOdds | Posterior Log Odds | Required. Finite number. |
| posterior | Posterior | Required. Finite number. |
{
"input": {
"priorLogOdds": 0,
"logLikelihoodRatio": 1.0986122886681096
},
"output": {
"posteriorLogOdds": 1.0986122886681096,
"posterior": 0.7499999999999999
}
}Limitations and assumptions
- Both log inputs must use natural logarithms. No evidence independence, likelihood estimation, prior justification or hypothesis truth is verified; extreme finite inputs can saturate the probability.
- Inputs must satisfy both the field types and the cross-field conditions above. Invalid input causes an error; a successful false flag or documented placeholder is a different result.
- Numeric calculations use binary floating point unless exact decimal-integer arithmetic is explicitly stated. No hidden measurement tolerance or decimal rounding is added; nonfinite or out-of-contract results are rejected. Numeric signed-zero results are exported as zero.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Evaluate source quality and the complete inference model. Check likelihood meaning, dependence, prior assumptions, normalization and uncertainty rather than substituting counts or weights for justified evidence.
References
Similar or alternative tools
- Likelihood Evidence Direction One Pair
Divide true/false likelihood and label supports, opposes or neutral by their ordering.
- Bayesian Confirmation Prior Posterior Gap
Return posterior-minus-prior and divide that gap by prior.