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Perceptual Choice Prior Odds Shift Tool

Binary supplied likelihood-ratio update, without fitting a perceptual model.

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Description

Update prior odds by a supplied likelihood ratio.

Cognitive research records can encode stimuli, response timing, probability assumptions and observation support. Local differences and caller-defined tolerance labels do not establish perceptual validity, a cognitive mechanism, statistical equivalence or a clinical assessment.

Update prior odds by a supplied likelihood ratio.

When to use this tool

Use Perceptual Choice Prior Odds Shift when checking a supplied cognitive-task timing, stimulus, probability or evidence convention.

How to use the tool and how it works

  1. Enter priorProbability, likelihoodRatio. Use the units and conventions below.
  2. Run the tool. Correct any format, range, or cross-field input error before interpreting the output.
  3. Read priorOdds, posteriorOdds, posteriorProbability. Use the output convention below.

Update prior odds by a supplied likelihood ratio. Require priorProbability strictly between zero and one and likelihoodRatio >= 0; priorOdds = p/(1-p), posteriorOdds = odds*LR, posteriorProbability = p*LR/(1-p+p*LR).1

Input fieldMeaning and unitsAccepted input
priorProbabilityPrior Probability Unit: 1.Required. Finite number; strictly above 0; strictly below 1.
likelihoodRatioLikelihood Ratio Unit: 1.Required. Finite number; minimum 0.
Output fieldInterpretationReturned shape
priorOddsPrior OddsRequired. Finite number.
posteriorOddsPosterior OddsRequired. Finite number.
posteriorProbabilityPosterior Probability Unit: 1.Required. Finite number.
json
{
  "input": {
    "priorProbability": 0.5,
    "likelihoodRatio": 3
  },
  "output": {
    "priorOdds": 1,
    "posteriorOdds": 3,
    "posteriorProbability": 0.75
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

  • The likelihood ratio must refer to the same hypotheses/evidence; no perceptual model, evidence independence or calibration is established.
  • Inputs must satisfy both the field types and the cross-field conditions above. Invalid input causes an error; a successful false flag or documented placeholder is a different result.
  • Numeric calculations use binary floating point unless exact decimal-integer arithmetic is explicitly stated. No hidden measurement tolerance or decimal rounding is added; nonfinite or out-of-contract results are rejected. Numeric signed-zero results are exported as zero.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Use a validated study design, calibrated measurements and appropriate statistical/professional interpretation for cognitive or health conclusions.

References

  1. Calculation and input contract: cognitive-science/perceptual-choice-prior-odds-shift — tool.io

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