Swarm Rate Acceleration Checker

Audit contiguous exposure-normalized swarm counts using midpoint second differences and a large-count independent-Poisson endpoint ratio error; no earthquake clustering correction, missing-detection inference or eruption probability.

Description

Event rates require counts divided by observation duration.

Event rates require counts divided by observation duration. Changes in rate should compare window midpoints when exposure durations differ.

When to use Swarm Rate Acceleration Checker

Use this tool to audit contiguous exposure-normalized swarm counts using midpoint second differences and a large-count independent-Poisson endpoint ratio error; no earthquake clustering correction, missing-detection inference or eruption probability.

Gather the relevant observations and fitted model parameters. Use the stated units and time basis; keep paired observations aligned.

How to use Swarm Rate Acceleration Checker and understand its results

Gather the relevant observations and fitted model parameters. Use the stated units and time basis; keep paired observations aligned.
Enter eventCountsByWindow, windowDurationsDays, callerRateAccelerationPerDaySquared using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
Read eventRatesPerDay, lastRateAccelerationPerDaySquared, lastToFirstRateRatio, approximateEndpointLogRateRatioStandardError, aboveCallerAcceleration. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.

Input field	Meaning	Value type; see rules below	Requirement
eventCountsByWindow	Event counts by window	list of number	Required
windowDurationsDays	Window durations days	list of number	Required
callerRateAccelerationPerDaySquared	Caller rate acceleration per day squared	number	Required

Supply at least three contiguous windows with positive integer counts and positive durations. Form rates, divide the last two rate differences by midpoint separations, and divide their difference by the separation of those intervals. Compare acceleration strictly above the supplied criterion.^[1]

Paired lists must be nonempty and have equal lengths.

endpoint log-ratio standard error ≈ sqrt(1/firstCount + 1/lastCount)

Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.

Output field	Meaning	Value type
eventRatesPerDay	Event rates per day	list of number
lastRateAccelerationPerDaySquared	Last rate acceleration per day squared	number
lastToFirstRateRatio	Last to first rate ratio	number
approximateEndpointLogRateRatioStandardError	Approximate endpoint log rate ratio standard error	number
aboveCallerAcceleration	Above caller acceleration	boolean

json

{
  "input": {
    "eventCountsByWindow": [
      10,
      20,
      40
    ],
    "windowDurationsDays": [
      1,
      1,
      1
    ],
    "callerRateAccelerationPerDaySquared": 5
  },
  "output": {
    "eventRatesPerDay": [
      10,
      20,
      40
    ],
    "lastRateAccelerationPerDaySquared": 10,
    "lastToFirstRateRatio": 4,
    "approximateEndpointLogRateRatioStandardError": 0.3535533905932738,
    "aboveCallerAcceleration": true
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

Endpoint error assumes independent Poisson counts and sufficiently large counts; clustering and missed detections are excluded.

Numbers and computed results must be finite; overflow produces an error. Numeric lists are limited to 100,000 entries; the rules above may require smaller limits. Missing required fields, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors. A successfully returned false flag is an evaluated outcome; its meaning is explained above.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Use RSAM Seismic Amplitude Mean Trend Tool: Compute equal-duration mean absolute detrended ground-velocity RSAM windows with clipping diagnostics; inputs share a fixed sample rate/instrument response and output is not magnitude, tremor attribution or eruption diagnosis. For a complementary task, use SO2 Flux Trend Escalation Checker: Monitor observed SO2 multiplicative growth and extrapolated caller flux timing; model assumes unchanged trend and is not an eruption escalation/alert forecast.

References

Swarm Rate Acceleration Checker — tool.io

Similar or alternative tools

RSAM Seismic Amplitude Mean Trend Tool
Compute equal-duration mean absolute detrended ground-velocity RSAM windows with clipping diagnostics; inputs share a fixed sample rate/instrument response and output is not magnitude, tremor attribution or eruption diagnosis.
SO2 Flux Trend Escalation Checker
Monitor observed SO2 multiplicative growth and extrapolated caller flux timing; model assumes unchanged trend and is not an eruption escalation/alert forecast.