Repose Interval Recurrence Mean
Summarize complete historical repose intervals separately from right-censored time since last onset; not a survival-corrected mean recurrence estimator or deterministic next-event forecast.
Description
Completed repose intervals end at observed eruption onsets.
Completed repose intervals end at observed eruption onsets. The elapsed interval at catalog end is right-censored because its next event is unknown.
Summarize complete historical repose intervals separately from right-censored time since last onset; not a survival-corrected mean recurrence estimator or deterministic next-event forecast.
When to use Repose Interval Recurrence Mean
Use this tool to summarize complete historical repose intervals separately from right-censored time since last onset; not a survival-corrected mean recurrence estimator or deterministic next-event forecast.
Gather the relevant observations and fitted model parameters. Use the stated units and time basis; keep paired observations aligned.
How to use Repose Interval Recurrence Mean and understand its results
- Gather the relevant observations and fitted model parameters. Use the stated units and time basis; keep paired observations aligned.
- Enter eruptionOnsetYears, catalogEndYear using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
- Read completedReposeIntervalsYears, meanCompletedReposeYears, sampleReposeStandardDeviationYears, rightCensoredCurrentReposeYears. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
- If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type; see rules below | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| eruptionOnsetYears | Eruption onset years | list of number | Required |
| catalogEndYear | Catalog end year | number | Required |
Enter at least three strictly increasing onset years and a catalog end at or after the last onset. Summarize completed differences with their mean and sample standard deviation; report current censored repose separately.1
Each sequence checked for increasing order must contain at least two strictly increasing values. Sample variance requires at least two samples and uses the n−1 denominator.
completed interval[i] = onset[i+1] − onset[i] Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.
| Output field | Meaning | Value type |
|---|---|---|
| completedReposeIntervalsYears | Completed repose intervals years | list of number |
| meanCompletedReposeYears | Mean completed repose years | number |
| sampleReposeStandardDeviationYears | Sample repose standard deviation years | number |
| rightCensoredCurrentReposeYears | Right censored current repose years | number |
{
"input": {
"eruptionOnsetYears": [
1900,
1910,
1930,
1960
],
"catalogEndYear": 1970
},
"output": {
"completedReposeIntervalsYears": [
10,
20,
30
],
"meanCompletedReposeYears": 20,
"sampleReposeStandardDeviationYears": 10,
"rightCensoredCurrentReposeYears": 10
}
}Limitations and assumptions
No survival correction or next-event prediction is made. Catalog omissions affect the historical intervals.
Numbers and computed results must be finite; overflow produces an error. Numeric lists are limited to 100,000 entries; the rules above may require smaller limits. Missing required fields, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use Weibull Repose Failure Probability: Evaluate conditional Weibull renewal probability given no event through elapsed repose, using supplied fitted parameters and stable hazard increments; model probabilities are not validated volcano-specific eruption risk. For a complementary task, use Time Predictable Next Eruption Estimator: Fit the time-predictable previous-eruption-volume/subsequent-repose hypothesis and interpolate a last-volume scenario; this historical calibration is not a reliable next-eruption date or an uncertainty interval.
References
-
Repose Interval Recurrence Mean — tool.io
Similar or alternative tools
- Weibull Repose Failure Probability
Evaluate conditional Weibull renewal probability given no event through elapsed repose, using supplied fitted parameters and stable hazard increments; model probabilities are not validated volcano-specific eruption risk.
- Time Predictable Next Eruption Estimator
Fit the time-predictable previous-eruption-volume/subsequent-repose hypothesis and interpolate a last-volume scenario; this historical calibration is not a reliable next-eruption date or an uncertainty interval.