Riegel Race Time Prediction Calculator
Riegel race extrapolation scenarios from actual race histories and caller fatigue exponents; predictions not pacing advice, health assessment or guaranteed endurance.
Description
Riegel scenarios extrapolate a race time with a caller fatigue exponent.
Riegel scenarios extrapolate a race time with a caller fatigue exponent. Different historical races can yield different predictions.1
The returned values include Predicted race minutes from each observation, Prediction spread minutes. The How section below explains the calculation, input rules and interpretation.
When to use Riegel Race Time Prediction Calculator
Use Riegel Race Time Prediction Calculator when you need to evaluate the supplied records under the calculation and evidence rules below. No guaranteed endurance, pacing advice or medical assessment is supplied.
Prepare the observed race, match or training records and the stated units. Supply independently verified rule editions, calibration tables and targets where requested.
How to use Riegel Race Time Prediction Calculator and understand its results
- Prepare the observed race, match or training records and the stated units. Supply independently verified rule editions, calibration tables and targets where requested.
- Enter observedRaceDistancesKm, observedRaceTimesMinutes, queryRaceDistanceKm, callerRiegelExponents using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
- Read predictedRaceMinutesFromEachObservation, predictionSpreadMinutes. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
- If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type; see rules below | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| observedRaceDistancesKm | Observed race distances km | list of number | Required |
| observedRaceTimesMinutes | Observed race times minutes | list of number | Required |
| queryRaceDistanceKm | Query race distance km | number | Required |
| callerRiegelExponents | Caller riegel exponents | list of number | Required |
Enter aligned nonempty positive distances/times/exponents and positive query distance. Return each prediction and maximum-minus-minimum spread.
queryTime_i=observedTime_i×(queryDistance/observedDistance_i)^exponent_i Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.
| Output field | Meaning | Value type |
|---|---|---|
| predictedRaceMinutesFromEachObservation | Predicted race minutes from each observation | list of number |
| predictionSpreadMinutes | Prediction spread minutes | number |
{
"input": {
"observedRaceDistancesKm": [
5,
10
],
"observedRaceTimesMinutes": [
20,
42
],
"queryRaceDistanceKm": 21.1,
"callerRiegelExponents": [
1.06,
1.06
]
},
"output": {
"predictedRaceMinutesFromEachObservation": [
92.01554307851522,
92.68056934022022
],
"predictionSpreadMinutes": 0.6650262617049947
}
}Limitations and assumptions
No guaranteed endurance, pacing advice or medical assessment is supplied.
Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Numeric lists are limited to 10,000 entries; string lists to 128 strings of at most 128 characters each. The rules above may impose smaller limits. Missing required fields, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use VDOT From Race Result Calculator: VDOT is a race-performance regression score. It is distinct from a laboratory measurement of oxygen uptake. For a complementary task, use Per-KM Marathon Split Calculator: A variable-pace split plan uses each segment’s own distance and pace. Partial final kilometers remain explicit.
References
-
Riegel Race Time Prediction Calculator — tool.io
Similar or alternative tools
- VDOT From Race Result Calculator
VDOT is a race-performance regression score. It is distinct from a laboratory measurement of oxygen uptake.
- Per-KM Marathon Split Calculator
A variable-pace split plan uses each segment’s own distance and pace. Partial final kilometers remain explicit.