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Policy Indicator Direction Change Token

Compare explicit indicator observations under a supplied preferred direction without attributing change to a policy.

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Description

Flag a supplied indicator's change in the declared preferred direction.

Policy analysis depends on declared eligibility bounds, reference periods, indicator direction and resource denominators. A linear phase-in or household weight is an explicit scenario assumption. A preferred-direction change, age predicate or cost contribution does not establish policy effectiveness, causal impact, actual eligibility or the governing legal rule.

Flag a supplied indicator's change in the declared preferred direction.

When to use this tool

Use Policy Indicator Direction Change Token when you already have previousValue, currentValue, higherPreferred and need to flag a supplied indicator's change in the declared preferred direction.

How to use the tool and how it works

  1. Enter previousValue, currentValue, higherPreferred. Use the units and conventions below.
  2. Run the tool. Correct any format, range, or cross-field input error before interpreting the output.
  3. Read signedChange, preferredDirectionChange, unchanged. Inspect preferredDirectionChange, unchanged before interpreting the associated values.

Return current-previous, literal equality as unchanged, and a strict increase/decrease flag according to higherPreferred.1

Input fieldMeaning and unitsAccepted input
previousValuePrevious ValueRequired. Finite number.
currentValueCurrent ValueRequired. Finite number.
higherPreferredHigher PreferredRequired. Boolean.
Output fieldInterpretationReturned shape
signedChangeSigned ChangeRequired. Finite number.
preferredDirectionChangeStrict movement in the supplied preferred direction; false at equality.Required. Boolean.
unchangedUnchangedRequired. Boolean.
json
{
  "input": {
    "previousValue": 40,
    "currentValue": 35,
    "higherPreferred": false
  },
  "output": {
    "signedChange": -5,
    "preferredDirectionChange": true,
    "unchanged": false
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

  • Preferred direction is a caller judgment; no causality, policy effectiveness or statistical significance is established.
  • Inputs must satisfy both the field types and the cross-field conditions above. Invalid input causes an error; a successful false flag or documented placeholder is a different result.
  • Numeric calculations use binary floating point unless exact decimal-integer arithmetic is explicitly stated. No hidden measurement tolerance or decimal rounding is added; nonfinite or out-of-contract results are rejected. Numeric signed-zero results are exported as zero.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Use the full eligibility or phase-in rule and its source when evaluating a real policy record. For effectiveness questions, use a study design that addresses the comparator, timing and population; local costs or direction flags alone do not supply that evidence.

References

  1. Calculation and input contract: public-policy/policy-indicator-direction-change-token — tool.io

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