Release Probability
Invert observed failure fraction F=(1−p)^N using supplied identical independent release sites; the boundary estimate p=1 does not imply certainty about underlying p.
Description
Under independent equal-probability release sites, a failure means no site released.
Under independent equal-probability release sites, a failure means no site released. Taking an Nth root converts the total failure fraction to a per-site probability.
The tool returns failureFraction (failure fraction); perSiteReleaseProbability (per site release probability). Input measurements and model parameters are supplied by the caller; the tool computes the stated summary rather than acquiring those measurements.
When to use Release Probability
Use Release Probability when you already have failedTrials, totalTrials, independentReleaseSites and want failureFraction, perSiteReleaseProbability. This is useful for checking a supplied calculation, documenting a measurement convention, or comparing observations prepared on the same basis.
How to use Release Probability and understand its results
- Enter failedTrials, totalTrials, independentReleaseSites using the field table below. Match the units, ordering and data boundaries described in the calculation.
- Run the tool after checking the stated bounds and matching paired observations or categories. A malformed request gives a tool error rather than a usable measurement.
- Read failureFraction, perSiteReleaseProbability. Use the calculation and interpretation below to distinguish amounts, ratios, signs and decision flags where applicable.
- Review the supplied parameters and assumptions before using the result in a report or comparing it with another observation.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type and bounds | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| failedTrials | Failed trials | integer | Required |
| totalTrials | Total trials | integer | Required |
| independentReleaseSites | Independent release sites | integer | Required |
Use integer failures no greater than a positive total and a positive integer number of sites. Zero failures map to probability one; all failures map to zero.
p = 1−failureFraction^(1/siteCount) The symbols refer to the supplied quantities or generated values described above; unit conversions and comparison boundaries follow the stated implementation.
{
"input": {
"failedTrials": 25,
"totalTrials": 100,
"independentReleaseSites": 2
},
"output": {
"failureFraction": 0.25,
"perSiteReleaseProbability": 0.5
}
}Limitations and assumptions
Independence and identical release probabilities are assumptions. No uncertainty or correction for detection failures is supplied.
Numerical inputs must be finite. The tool checks its declared input shape and calculation constraints; those checks do not verify the quality, calibration or representativeness of the supplied observations.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Quantal Size: Estimate quantal amplitude as noise-corrected variance/mean under identical-quantal Poisson release; finite-p binomial release and quantal variability violate this approximation. Active Zone Number: Infer effective release-site count and p from binomial mean/variance and independently measured quantal magnitude; N is not rounded or claimed to count anatomical active zones.
Methodological background: Quantal components of the end-plate potential.1
References
-
Quantal components of the end-plate potential — del Castillo and Katz; Journal of Physiology
Similar or alternative tools
- Quantal Size
Estimate quantal amplitude as noise-corrected variance/mean under identical-quantal Poisson release; finite-p binomial release and quantal variability violate this approximation.
- Active Zone Number
Infer effective release-site count and p from binomial mean/variance and independently measured quantal magnitude; N is not rounded or claimed to count anatomical active zones.