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Forecast Skill Baseline Equality Point Tool

Calculate forecast skill baseline equality point from explicit caller-supplied inputs.

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Description

Subtract baselineLoss from modelLoss for residual.

A skill comparison expresses performance relative to a reference loss or scale. Zero baselines and orientation choices can make a nominal score undefined or reverse its interpretation.

Subtract baselineLoss from modelLoss for residual.

When to use this tool

Use Forecast Skill Baseline Equality Point when you need an explicit baseline-relative error or equality term.

How to use the tool and how it works

  1. Enter modelLoss, baselineLoss, tolerance. Use the units and conventions below.
  2. Run the tool. Correct any format, range, or cross-field input error before interpreting the output.
  3. Read equal, residual. Inspect equal before interpreting the associated values.

Subtract baselineLoss from modelLoss for residual. Mark equal when its absolute value is at most nonnegative tolerance.1

Input fieldMeaning and unitsAccepted input
modelLossModel LossRequired. Finite number; minimum 0.
baselineLossBaseline LossRequired. Finite number; minimum 0.
toleranceToleranceRequired. Finite number; minimum 0.
Output fieldInterpretationReturned shape
equalEqualRequired. Boolean.
residualSigned residual using the convention in the calculation paragraph.Required. Finite number.
json
{
  "input": {
    "modelLoss": 2,
    "baselineLoss": 3,
    "tolerance": 0.1
  },
  "output": {
    "equal": false,
    "residual": -1
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

  • This uses an absolute tolerance in loss units, not a statistical equivalence test or relative skill score.
  • Inputs must satisfy both the field types and the cross-field conditions above. Invalid input causes an error; a successful false flag or documented placeholder is a different result.
  • Numeric calculations use binary floating point unless exact decimal-integer arithmetic is explicitly stated. No hidden measurement tolerance or decimal rounding is added; nonfinite or out-of-contract results are rejected. Numeric signed-zero results are exported as zero.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Check baseline suitability and aggregate losses on comparable observations before interpreting relative performance.

References

  1. Calculation and input contract: metrics/forecast-skill-baseline-equality-point — tool.io

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