Description
Return revised minus previous as revision and calculate both old and new forecast-minus-actual errors.
Signed errors preserve direction while absolute or squared errors emphasize magnitude. Their gradients and small-residual approximations represent specific mathematical terms rather than complete performance evaluations.
Return revised minus previous as revision and calculate both old and new forecast-minus-actual errors.
When to use this tool
Use Forecast Delta Revision One Horizon when you need an explicit error, gradient, or local loss component.
How to use the tool and how it works
- Enter previous, revised, actual. Use the units and conventions below.
- Run the tool. Correct any format, range, or cross-field input error before interpreting the output.
- Read revision, oldError, newError. Use the output convention below.
Return revised minus previous as revision and calculate both old and new forecast-minus-actual errors.1
| Input field | Meaning and units | Accepted input |
|---|---|---|
| previous | Previous | Required. Finite number. |
| revised | Revised | Required. Finite number. |
| actual | Observed value on the same scale and unit as its prediction. | Required. Finite number. |
| Output field | Interpretation | Returned shape |
|---|---|---|
| revision | Revision | Required. Finite number. |
| oldError | Old Error | Required. Finite number. |
| newError | New Error | Required. Finite number. |
{
"input": {
"previous": 10,
"revised": 12,
"actual": 11
},
"output": {
"revision": 2,
"oldError": -1,
"newError": 1
}
}Limitations and assumptions
- This compares one horizon without aggregating accuracy or deciding whether the revision is beneficial.
- Inputs must satisfy both the field types and the cross-field conditions above. Invalid input causes an error; a successful false flag or documented placeholder is a different result.
- Numeric calculations use binary floating point unless exact decimal-integer arithmetic is explicitly stated. No hidden measurement tolerance or decimal rounding is added; nonfinite or out-of-contract results are rejected. Numeric signed-zero results are exported as zero.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Assess a full error distribution and keep the sign and aggregation conventions consistent across models.
References
Similar or alternative tools
- Metrics: Forecast Error Sign Convention
Subtract actual from forecast for forecast-minus-actual, or reverse the subtraction for actual-minus-forecast.
- Forecast Bias Cancellation One Pair
Average the two signed errors for meanBias and their magnitudes for meanAbsoluteError.