Description
Multiply probability and residualProbability separately by impact.
Expected exposure multiplies an event probability by its impact. Comparing initial and residual exposure can express a mitigation assumption without validating that assumption.
Multiply probability and residualProbability separately by impact.
When to use this tool
Use Risk Exposure One Event Term when you need one transparent event-risk cost term.
How to use the tool and how it works
- Enter probability, impact, mitigationCost, residualProbability. Use the units and conventions below.
- Run the tool. Correct any format, range, or cross-field input error before interpreting the output.
- Read initialExposure, residualExposure, netReduction. Use the output convention below.
Multiply probability and residualProbability separately by impact. Subtract residual exposure and mitigationCost from initial exposure for netReduction.1
| Input field | Meaning and units | Accepted input |
|---|---|---|
| probability | Probability | Required. Finite number; minimum 0; maximum 1. |
| impact | Impact | Required. Finite number; minimum 0. |
| mitigationCost | Mitigation Cost | Required. Finite number; minimum 0. |
| residualProbability | Residual Probability | Required. Finite number; minimum 0; maximum 1. |
| Output field | Interpretation | Returned shape |
|---|---|---|
| initialExposure | Initial Exposure | Required. Finite number. |
| residualExposure | Residual Exposure | Required. Finite number. |
| netReduction | Initial exposure minus residual exposure and mitigation cost, in impact/cost units. | Required. Finite number. |
{
"input": {
"probability": 0.2,
"impact": 1000,
"mitigationCost": 50,
"residualProbability": 0.1
},
"output": {
"initialExposure": 200,
"residualExposure": 100,
"netReduction": 50
}
}Limitations and assumptions
- Probabilities are fractions and impact and cost share a unit; residual risk may exceed initial risk and no probability estimate or decision recommendation is supplied.
- Inputs must satisfy both the field types and the cross-field conditions above. Invalid input causes an error; a successful false flag or documented placeholder is a different result.
- Numeric calculations use binary floating point unless exact decimal-integer arithmetic is explicitly stated. No hidden measurement tolerance or decimal rounding is added; nonfinite or out-of-contract results are rejected. Numeric signed-zero results are exported as zero.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use evidence-based probabilities and consider dependencies, uncertainty, and nonmonetary consequences in a complete risk assessment.
References
Similar or alternative tools
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