Election Too Close to Call Margin Threshold Lookup
Audit actual two-candidate reported margin under explicit outstanding/error vote bounds using adversarial worst-case allocation; no predicted uncounted vote mix, official race call, certification or statistical confidence.
Description
A two-candidate margin can be screened against a caller’s worst-case outstanding and error bounds.
A two-candidate margin can be screened against a caller’s worst-case outstanding and error bounds. An interval crossing zero includes a possible tie.1
Enter nonnegative safe-integer vote counts and bounds. Return signed reported margin, safe-integer interval and inclusive zero-crossing flag.
When to use Election Too Close to Call Margin Threshold Lookup
Use Election Too Close to Call Margin Threshold Lookup when you need to evaluate the supplied records under the calculation and evidence rules below. No remaining vote mix, confidence level, official race call or certification is inferred.
Prepare the actual editorial, source, layout, timing or audience records requested. Supply explicit house-policy limits and preserve missing evidence.
How to use Election Too Close to Call Margin Threshold Lookup and understand its results
- Prepare the actual editorial, source, layout, timing or audience records requested. Supply explicit house-policy limits and preserve missing evidence.
- Enter firstCandidateReportedVotes, secondCandidateReportedVotes, callerMaximumOutstandingVotes, callerExtraUncertaintyVotes using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
- Read signedReportedFirstMinusSecondVotes, worstCaseFirstMarginIntervalVotes, leaderCouldChangeUnderCallerBounds. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
- If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type; see rules below | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| firstCandidateReportedVotes | First candidate reported votes | number | Required |
| secondCandidateReportedVotes | Second candidate reported votes | number | Required |
| callerMaximumOutstandingVotes | Caller maximum outstanding votes | number | Required |
| callerExtraUncertaintyVotes | Caller extra uncertainty votes | number | Required |
Enter nonnegative safe-integer vote counts and bounds. Return signed reported margin, safe-integer interval and inclusive zero-crossing flag.
margin=first−second; interval=margin±(outstanding+extraUncertainty) Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.
| Output field | Meaning | Value type |
|---|---|---|
| signedReportedFirstMinusSecondVotes | Signed reported first minus second votes | number |
| worstCaseFirstMarginIntervalVotes | Worst case first margin interval votes | list of number |
| leaderCouldChangeUnderCallerBounds | Leader could change under caller bounds | boolean |
{
"input": {
"firstCandidateReportedVotes": 100,
"secondCandidateReportedVotes": 90,
"callerMaximumOutstandingVotes": 20,
"callerExtraUncertaintyVotes": 0
},
"output": {
"signedReportedFirstMinusSecondVotes": 10,
"worstCaseFirstMarginIntervalVotes": [
-10,
30
],
"leaderCouldChangeUnderCallerBounds": true
}
}Limitations and assumptions
No remaining vote mix, confidence level, official race call or certification is inferred.
Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Missing required fields, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors. A successfully returned false flag is an evaluated outcome; its meaning is explained above.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use Poll Horse Race Rounding Sum 100 Checker: Rounded exhaustive disjoint poll categories may sum above or below 100. Caller-supplied rounding intervals can test arithmetic feasibility. For a complementary task, use Small Denominator Instability Warning Checker: A single numerator event changes a rate more when its denominator is small. This sensitivity is different from a confidence interval.
References
Similar or alternative tools
- Poll Horse Race Rounding Sum 100 Checker
Rounded exhaustive disjoint poll categories may sum above or below 100. Caller-supplied rounding intervals can test arithmetic feasibility.
- Small Denominator Instability Warning Checker
A single numerator event changes a rate more when its denominator is small. This sensitivity is different from a confidence interval.