Geology Seismic Recurrence Interval Calculator
Actual ordered qualifying seismic event intervals and mean, not probabilistic recurrence return period from a missing catalog or next-earthquake prediction.
Description
Seismic recurrence intervals describe gaps between qualifying recorded events.
Seismic recurrence intervals describe gaps between qualifying recorded events.1
The observed mean is distinct from a forecast of the next event. Use this tool to calculate the stated observation or conditional model from supplied measurements.
When to use Geology Seismic Recurrence Interval Calculator
Use this tool to calculate the stated observation or conditional model from supplied measurements. Establish the sample and coordinate basis, matching units, calibration source and applicable model assumptions.
How to use Geology Seismic Recurrence Interval Calculator and understand its results
- Establish the sample and coordinate basis, matching units, calibration source and applicable model assumptions.
- Enter actualQualifyingEventTimesYears, using the field meanings and rules below, then run the tool.
- Read result.observedIntereventIntervalsYears, result.observedMeanIntervalYears. Interpret each field using the units, signs and evidence rules below.
- If input validation fails, correct the reported field and run again. Before applying a successful result, check the stated reference scope, units, assumptions and any retained unknown evidence.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| actualQualifyingEventTimesYears | Actual qualifying event times years | list of number | Required |
Require at least two strictly increasing finite event-year coordinates. Return successive gaps and their arithmetic mean; signed year coordinates are permitted. No confidence interval, missing-event correction or future-event prediction is supplied.
gapYears_i=eventYear_(i+1)−eventYear_i; meanIntervalYears=mean(gaps) Apply the field units and exact ordering, boundary and evidence rules above.
| Output field | Meaning | Value type |
|---|---|---|
| result | Structured result containing the calculation or selected reference fields below | object |
| result.observedIntereventIntervalsYears | Observed Interevent Intervals Years; use the units, sign convention and calculation stated above | list of number |
| result.observedMeanIntervalYears | Observed Mean Interval Years; use the units, sign convention and calculation stated above | number |
{
"input": {
"actualQualifyingEventTimesYears": [
1,
3,
6
]
},
"output": {
"result": {
"observedIntereventIntervalsYears": [
2,
3
],
"observedMeanIntervalYears": 2.5
}
}
}Limitations and assumptions
The observed mean is distinct from a forecast of the next event. Results depend on the independently established measurement basis and the exact model assumptions above.
Every listed input requires an explicit value. Unexpected fields, incorrect value types, nonfinite numbers and sparse numeric arrays fail validation; tool-specific bounds and alignment rules apply as described above. Extremely large inputs or outputs can also be rejected. An input error is distinct from a successful calculation that reports a false comparison or retains unknown evidence.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use Geology Seismic Magnitude From Fault Length Calculator to examine a related aspect: Fault-length magnitude relationships depend on an applicable empirical calibration.
Use Geology Seismic B Value From Catalog Calculator where its separate inputs and scope apply: A seismic b-value describes the magnitude-frequency distribution under an adopted catalogue model.
References
Similar or alternative tools
- Geology Seismic Magnitude From Fault Length Calculator
Fault-length magnitude relationships depend on an applicable empirical calibration.
- Geology Seismic B Value From Catalog Calculator
A seismic b-value describes the magnitude-frequency distribution under an adopted catalogue model.