Extrapolation Horizon Limit Warning Checker
Project compound uncertainty over a caller-supplied horizon and classify it against caller-supplied warning thresholds.
Description
An extrapolation can assume uncertainty grows at a constant annual compound rate.
An extrapolation can assume uncertainty grows at a constant annual compound rate. Explicit thresholds provide an illustrative warning screen.1
The returned values include Projected uncertainty percent, Warning status. The How section below explains the calculation, input rules and interpretation.
When to use Extrapolation Horizon Limit Warning Checker
Use Extrapolation Horizon Limit Warning Checker when you need to evaluate the supplied records under the calculation and evidence rules below. Percent values may exceed100. The safe label is a threshold result, not forecast reliability or a calibrated probability.
Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
How to use Extrapolation Horizon Limit Warning Checker and understand its results
- Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
- Enter annualUncertaintyGrowthPercent, baselineUncertaintyPercent, criticalThresholdPercent, warningThresholdPercent, yearsAhead using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
- Read projectedUncertaintyPercent, status. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
- If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.
| Input field | Meaning | Value type; see rules below | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| annualUncertaintyGrowthPercent | Annual uncertainty growth percent (%) | number; minimum: 0 | Required |
| baselineUncertaintyPercent | Baseline uncertainty percent (%) | number; minimum: 0 | Required |
| criticalThresholdPercent | Critical threshold percent (%) | number; minimum: 0 | Required |
| warningThresholdPercent | Warning threshold percent (%) | number; minimum: 0 | Required |
| yearsAhead | Years ahead | integer; minimum: 0 | Required |
Require finite nonnegative baseline/growth/thresholds and nonnegative safe-integer years, with critical≥warning. Reject nonfinite projection. Test critical first using ≥critical, then warning using ≥warning, else safe.
projected=baseline×(1+growth/100)^years Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.
| Output field | Meaning | Value type |
|---|---|---|
| projectedUncertaintyPercent | Projected uncertainty percent (%) | number; minimum: 0 |
| status | Warning status | string; one of "safe", "warning", "critical" |
{
"input": {
"annualUncertaintyGrowthPercent": 20,
"baselineUncertaintyPercent": 5,
"criticalThresholdPercent": 50,
"warningThresholdPercent": 25,
"yearsAhead": 5
},
"output": {
"projectedUncertaintyPercent": 12.441599999999998,
"status": "safe"
}
}Limitations and assumptions
Percent values may exceed100. The safe label is a threshold result, not forecast reliability or a calibrated probability.
Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Missing fields without a declared default, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.
Alternative or Complementary methods
Use Kurzweil Law Accelerating Returns Lookup: Accelerating returns can be screened by comparing early and late annualized log growth in supplied milestones. Growth and acceleration are distinct. For a complementary task, use Wright Law Learning Curve Cost Doubling Lookup: Learning curves express a hypothetical unit-cost reduction per doubling of cumulative production. The chosen rate is an assumption, not an observed future trend.
References
Similar or alternative tools
- Kurzweil Law Accelerating Returns Lookup
Accelerating returns can be screened by comparing early and late annualized log growth in supplied milestones. Growth and acceleration are distinct.
- Wright Law Learning Curve Cost Doubling Lookup
Learning curves express a hypothetical unit-cost reduction per doubling of cumulative production. The chosen rate is an assumption, not an observed future trend.