Automation Labor Displacement Share Model

Estimate labor displacement and retained at-risk shares from caller-supplied automation, adoption, and execution percentages.

Description

Labor-displacement scenarios can combine a potentially automatable share with adoption and execution assumptions.

Labor-displacement scenarios can combine a potentially automatable share with adoption and execution assumptions. The returned shares have different denominators.1

The returned values include Displaced share percent, Retained at-risk share percent, Unaffected share percent. The How section below explains the calculation, input rules and interpretation.

When to use Automation Labor Displacement Share Model

Use Automation Labor Displacement Share Model when you need to evaluate the supplied records under the calculation and evidence rules below. No jobs forecast, worker outcomes or observed automation data is supplied.

Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.

How to use Automation Labor Displacement Share Model and understand its results

  1. Define the question, evidence and scenario assumptions first. Supply the chosen score scales, time horizons or reference selection explicitly. Interpret generated text as a discussion template and screen labels as the stated rules.
  2. Enter adoptionPercent, automatableSharePercent, executionPercent using the field table and calculation rules, then run the tool.
  3. Read displacedSharePercent, retainedAtRiskSharePercent, unaffectedSharePercent. The explanation below defines the units, signs, ordering and any flags or placeholder values.
  4. If the tool reports an input issue, correct the values and run it again. Apply the stated assumptions when interpreting a successfully returned result.
Input fieldMeaningValue type; see rules belowRequirement
adoptionPercentAdoption percent (%)number; minimum: 0; maximum: 100Required
automatableSharePercentAutomatable share percent (%)number; minimum: 0; maximum: 100Required
executionPercentExecution percent (%)number; minimum: 0; maximum: 100Required

Require finite percentages 0–100. Return displaced share, adopted at-risk share minus displaced, and100−automatable as unaffected. The three outputs need not sum100 because nonadopted automatable work is not separately returned.

displaced=automatable×adoption×execution/10000

Units, indexing, boundary conditions and exceptional cases are defined in the calculation rules above.

Output fieldMeaningValue type
displacedSharePercentDisplaced share percent (%)number; minimum: 0; maximum: 100
retainedAtRiskSharePercentRetained at-risk share percent (%)number; minimum: 0; maximum: 100
unaffectedSharePercentUnaffected share percent (%)number; minimum: 0; maximum: 100
json
{
  "input": {
    "adoptionPercent": 75,
    "automatableSharePercent": 40,
    "executionPercent": 80
  },
  "output": {
    "displacedSharePercent": 24,
    "retainedAtRiskSharePercent": 6,
    "unaffectedSharePercent": 60
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

No jobs forecast, worker outcomes or observed automation data is supplied.

Numeric inputs, where present, must be finite. Follow the calculation-specific rules for overflow, underflow and exceptional cases. Missing fields without a declared default, extra fields, wrong value types and violations of the calculation rules are input errors.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Use Augmentation and Automation Strategy Grid: Augmentation and automation describe two distinct dimensions of a work strategy. An explicit threshold divides a simple four-cell grid. For a complementary task, use Return to Office Trajectory Scenarios Lookup: Office trajectories can be discussed using task flexibility, collaboration dependence and required attendance. This classifier applies its fixed illustrative thresholds.

References

  1. Automation Labor Displacement Share Model — tool.io

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