Skip to content

Main content

Prior Credence Rounding Envelope Tool

Supplied credence precision envelope clipped to probability bounds; no prior is selected.

Loading tool…

Description

Return reported±halfwidth clipped to [0, 1].

Evidence weights and credences are numerical representations under a chosen model. Likelihood ratios, probabilities, logarithmic weights and confidence bounds have different meanings; one local calculation does not establish the truth of a claim.

Return reported±halfwidth clipped to [0, 1].

When to use this tool

Use Prior Credence Rounding Envelope when you need an explicit evidence-weight or probability-consistency term.

How to use the tool and how it works

  1. Enter reported, halfwidth. Use the units and conventions below.
  2. Run the tool. Correct any format, range, or cross-field input error before interpreting the output.
  3. Read lower, upper. Use the output convention below.

Require reported probability in [0, 1] and nonnegative halfwidth. Return reported±halfwidth clipped to [0, 1].1

Input fieldMeaning and unitsAccepted input
reportedReportedRequired. Finite number; minimum 0; maximum 1.
halfwidthHalfwidthRequired. Finite number; minimum 0.
Output fieldInterpretationReturned shape
lowerLowerRequired. Finite number.
upperUpperRequired. Finite number.
json
{
  "input": {
    "reported": 0.5,
    "halfwidth": 0.05
  },
  "output": {
    "lower": 0.45,
    "upper": 0.55
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

  • The envelope is caller specified, not an estimated confidence or credible interval or verified rounding error bound.
  • Inputs must satisfy both the field types and the cross-field conditions above. Invalid input causes an error; a successful false flag or documented placeholder is a different result.
  • Numeric calculations use binary floating point unless exact decimal-integer arithmetic is explicitly stated. No hidden measurement tolerance or decimal rounding is added; nonfinite or out-of-contract results are rejected. Numeric signed-zero results are exported as zero.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Evaluate source quality and the complete inference model. Check likelihood meaning, dependence, prior assumptions, normalization and uncertainty rather than substituting counts or weights for justified evidence.

References

  1. Calculation and input contract: epistemology/prior-credence-rounding-envelope — tool.io

Similar or alternative tools