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Prevalence Incidence Duration Residual Tool

Compare prevalence against the rare-disease stationary approximation P≈I*D; outputs are not a prevalence estimate outside those assumptions.

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Description

Return incidence×duration and prevalence-minus-product residual.

Epidemiological model terms link supplied prevalence, rates, durations or risk ratios under explicit assumptions. A mathematical identity or approximation does not estimate those inputs or establish the causal effect of an exposure.

Return incidence×duration and prevalence-minus-product residual.

When to use this tool

Use Prevalence Incidence Duration Residual when you need one transparent population-level model term.

How to use the tool and how it works

  1. Enter prevalence, incidencePerTime, meanDuration. Use the units and conventions below.
  2. Run the tool. Correct any format, range, or cross-field input error before interpreting the output.
  3. Read approximatePrevalence, residual. Use the output convention below.

Require prevalence in [0, 1] and nonnegative incidencePerTime/meanDuration. Return incidence×duration and prevalence-minus-product residual.1

Prevalence depends on both incidence and disease duration. The product evaluated here is a limited approximation, not a general conversion between arbitrary surveillance measures.2

Input fieldMeaning and unitsAccepted input
prevalencePrevalenceRequired. Finite number; minimum 0; maximum 1.
incidencePerTimeIncidence Per TimeRequired. Finite number; minimum 0.
meanDurationMean DurationRequired. Finite number; minimum 0.
Output fieldInterpretationReturned shape
approximatePrevalenceIncidence rate times mean duration; may exceed one under supplied inputs.Required. Finite number.
residualResidualRequired. Finite number.
json
{
  "input": {
    "prevalence": 0.1,
    "incidencePerTime": 0.02,
    "meanDuration": 4
  },
  "output": {
    "approximatePrevalence": 0.08,
    "residual": 0.020000000000000004
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

  • Incidence rate and duration use reciprocal time units. P≈I×D is a limited low-prevalence steady-state approximation; the product can exceed one and is not a probability estimate guaranteed valid by the tool.
  • Inputs must satisfy both the field types and the cross-field conditions above. Invalid input causes an error; a successful false flag or documented placeholder is a different result.
  • Numeric calculations use binary floating point unless exact decimal-integer arithmetic is explicitly stated. No hidden measurement tolerance or decimal rounding is added; nonfinite or out-of-contract results are rejected. Numeric signed-zero results are exported as zero.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Use an appropriate epidemiological study and causal analysis for interpretation. Check steady-state assumptions, confounding, exposure definitions, compatible time units and uncertainty before applying a model term to health policy or individual care.

References

  1. Calculation and input contract: epidemiology/prevalence-incidence-duration-residual — tool.io

  2. Principles of Epidemiology: incidence and prevalence — CDC

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