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Serial Correlation Innovation Residual Tool

Calculate a supplied one-step AR(1) residual innovation without estimating persistence or assuming stationarity.

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Description

Subtract a supplied first-order autoregressive residual term.

Econometric calculations separate supplied residuals, regressors, weights, restrictions, panel groups and reference periods. One score or moment contribution is not a fitted estimator, and one scalar covariance term is not a standard error. Unit rescaling and event-time arithmetic preserve conventions without establishing model identification or causal interpretation.

Subtract a supplied first-order autoregressive residual term.

When to use this tool

Use Serial Correlation Innovation Residual when you already have currentResidual, previousResidual, autoregressiveCoefficient and need to subtract a supplied first-order autoregressive residual term.

How to use the tool and how it works

  1. Enter currentResidual, previousResidual, autoregressiveCoefficient. Use the units and conventions below.
  2. Run the tool. Correct any format, range, or cross-field input error before interpreting the output.
  3. Read innovation. Use the output convention below.

Return currentResidual-autoregressiveCoefficient*previousResidual.1

Input fieldMeaning and unitsAccepted input
currentResidualCurrent ResidualRequired. Finite number.
previousResidualPrevious ResidualRequired. Finite number.
autoregressiveCoefficientAutoregressive CoefficientRequired. Finite number.
Output fieldInterpretationReturned shape
innovationInnovationRequired. Finite number.
json
{
  "input": {
    "currentResidual": 5,
    "previousResidual": 4,
    "autoregressiveCoefficient": 0.5
  },
  "output": {
    "innovation": 3
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

  • The coefficient is unrestricted and supplied. No stationarity, serial-correlation model, innovation independence or estimation validity is established.
  • Inputs must satisfy both the field types and the cross-field conditions above. Invalid input causes an error; a successful false flag or documented placeholder is a different result.
  • Numeric calculations use binary floating point unless exact decimal-integer arithmetic is explicitly stated. No hidden measurement tolerance or decimal rounding is added; nonfinite or out-of-contract results are rejected. Numeric signed-zero results are exported as zero.

Alternative or Complementary methods

Fit and evaluate the full specified model with appropriate data, grouping and uncertainty treatment for inference. Aggregate the required score/moment terms and use the complete covariance calculation; a local residual, cutoff flag or supplied coefficient transformation does not validate the estimator.

References

  1. Calculation and input contract: econometrics/serial-correlation-innovation-residual — tool.io

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