Omran Epidemiologic Transition Classifier
Assign the epidemiologic transition stage from life expectancy at birth under the stated band rule (under 40 pestilence and famine, under 50 receding pandemics, otherwise degenerative and man-made diseases, with 75 or over split into Olshansky-Ault delayed degenerative diseases only in the four-stage framework).
Description
Assign the epidemiologic transition stage from life expectancy at birth under the stated band rule (under 40 pestilence and famine, under 50 receding pandemics, otherwise degenerative and man-made diseases, with 75 or over split into Olshansky-Ault delayed degenerative diseases only in the four-stage framework).
Assign the epidemiologic transition stage from life expectancy at birth under the stated band rule (under 40 pestilence and famine, under 50 receding pandemics, otherwise degenerative and man-made diseases, with 75 or over split into Olshansky-Ault delayed degenerative diseases only in the four-stage framework).1
When to use Omran Epidemiologic Transition Classifier
Use this classifier as a concise description of the supplied demographic indicators, with the tool's thresholds kept visible in reports.
- e0
- Life expectancy at birth in years.
- Framework
- Three-stage Omran model or four-stage model with the Olshansky-Ault fourth age.
How the method works
- Stage
- Epidemiologic transition stage.
Limitations and assumptions
Transition stages are descriptive models, not universal laws or causal forecasts. Countries can follow different paths, reverse temporarily, or combine characteristics assigned to several stages.
Alternative or Complementary measures
Complement the stage label with the underlying time series for fertility, mortality, age structure, and household behavior. Trends show mixed or reversing patterns that a single category cannot express.
References
-
Demographic transition — Wikipedia contributors
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