Demographic Dividend Phase Classifier
Classify the demographic dividend phase from age shares using the stated rule: child dependency above old-age dependency with a total dependency ratio over 70 is pre-dividend, otherwise early-dividend; once old-age dependency meets or exceeds child dependency a ratio of 70 or less is late-dividend and above 70 is post-dividend.
Description
Classify the demographic dividend phase from age shares using the stated rule: child dependency above old-age dependency with a total dependency ratio over 70 is pre-dividend, otherwise early-dividend; once old-age dependency meets or exceeds child dependency a ratio of 70 or less is late-dividend and above 70 is post-dividend.
Classify the demographic dividend phase from age shares using the stated rule: child dependency above old-age dependency with a total dependency ratio over 70 is pre-dividend, otherwise early-dividend; once old-age dependency meets or exceeds child dependency a ratio of 70 or less is late-dividend and above 70 is post-dividend.1
When to use Demographic Dividend Phase Classifier
Use this classifier as a concise description of the supplied demographic indicators, with the tool's thresholds kept visible in reports.
- Young %
- Percent of the population aged 0-14.
- Working %
- Percent of the population aged 15-64.
- Old %
- Percent of the population aged 65 and over.
How the method works
- Child dependency
- Population aged 0-14 per 100 people aged 15-64.
- Old-age dependency
- Population aged 65+ per 100 people aged 15-64.
- Total dependency
- Sum of child and old-age dependency ratios.
- Phase
- Dividend phase under the documented dependency-ratio rule.
Limitations and assumptions
Transition stages are descriptive models, not universal laws or causal forecasts. Countries can follow different paths, reverse temporarily, or combine characteristics assigned to several stages.
Alternative or Complementary measures
Complement the stage label with the underlying time series for fertility, mortality, age structure, and household behavior. Trends show mixed or reversing patterns that a single category cannot express.
References
-
Demographic transition — Wikipedia contributors
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