Census Survival Migration Estimate
Estimate intercensal net migration for an age cohort as the observed cohort at the second census minus the survivors implied by applying a national life-table census survival ratio to the first-census cohort.
Description
Estimate intercensal net migration for an age cohort as the observed cohort at the second census minus the survivors implied by applying a national life-table census survival ratio to the first-census cohort.
Estimate intercensal net migration for an age cohort as the observed cohort at the second census minus the survivors implied by applying a national life-table census survival ratio to the first-census cohort.1
When to use Census Survival Migration Estimate
Use this migration measure when origins, destinations, reference periods, and the distinction between moves, movers, stocks, and flows are explicit.
- P1(x)
- Cohort size at age x in the first census.
- P2(x+n)
- Same cohort at age x+n in the second census.
- Survival ratio
- Census survival ratio l(x+n)/l(x) for the cohort.
How the method works
- Survivors
- Expected survivors without migration.
- Net migrants
- Estimated net migrants; negative means net out-migration.
Limitations and assumptions
Migration estimates are sensitive to boundary changes, return moves, duration thresholds, missing origin-destination cells, and whether the source records residence, birthplace, or events.
Alternative or Complementary measures
Compare flow-based estimates with residence or birthplace stocks and, where possible, an independent residual method. Gross inflows and outflows reveal movement that a net balance alone conceals.
References
-
Human migration — Wikipedia contributors
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