Multi-Year Death Probability tQx Calculator

Conditionalwholeyeardeath1−Πpxfromactualsequenceqx,not constanthazardassumed. Actual independently applicable qualified life-table/model/rate assumptions,not a diagnosis,individual death prediction,published mortalitytable,contractquote or guaranteed financialresult.

Description

A multi-year death probability is the complement of survival through successive conditional annual mortality intervals.

A multi-year death probability is the complement of survival through successive conditional annual mortality intervals.1

This calculator combines caller-supplied qx values rather than treating their simple sum as a probability.

When to use Multi-Year Death Probability tQx Calculator

Use this tool to apply the stated multi-year death probability tqx calculator operation with an explicit input and unit basis.

How to use Multi-Year Death Probability tQx Calculator and how it works

  1. Establish the measurement basis and units described above.
  2. Enter actualAnnualQx, actualYearCount and run the tool.
  3. Read result.conditionalProbability using the output meanings below.
  4. If input is rejected, correct the stated type, range, ordering or alignment issue and rerun; review successful results under the declared convention.
Input fieldMeaningValue typeRequirement
actualAnnualQxNonempty sequence of conditional annual death probabilities in attained-age order.array of numberrequired; dense; align related rows as specified; further conditions in the algorithm
actualYearCountYear Count. Units, ordering and applicable branch are specified in the algorithm.numberrequired; finite; further conditions in the algorithm

Require a nonempty annual qx table with every value in [0,1] and an integer year count 0 through table length. Multiply survival factors for the selected leading intervals, using log1p for accumulation; any selected qx=1 gives zero survival. Zero years returns zero death probability.

tqx = 1−product of (1−qx[i]) for i=0…t−1

Apply the declared units, ordering and branch conditions.

Output fieldMeaningValue type
resultObject containing the declared output fields.object
result.conditionalProbabilityConditional multi-year death or survival probability under the supplied qx path.number
json
{
  "input": {
    "actualAnnualQx": [
      0.1,
      0.2
    ],
    "actualYearCount": 2
  },
  "output": {
    "result": {
      "conditionalProbability": 0.28
    }
  }
}

Limitations and assumptions

The output applies the declared operation to the values you supply. Establish the measurement basis, units, coefficients and any caller-selected rules before interpreting it. The tool does not independently collect or verify observations or decide whether a model or reference applies.

Supply explicit required fields with the documented types and dense aligned arrays. Unknown fields, wrong types and nonfinite numbers are rejected. Branch-specific constraints are explained above. A returned boolean, signed difference or tied result follows the stated convention; an input error instead means the required input contract was not satisfied. Very large inputs or outputs may be rejected by shared resource limits.

Alternative or Complementary methods

For a related operation, use Multi-Year Survival Probability tPx Calculator. Multi-year survival combines conditional annual survival probabilities along an attained-age path.

For a related operation, use Deferred Mortality Probability Calculator. A deferred mortality probability covers survival through a waiting period followed by death within a later coverage period.

References

  1. Multi-Year Death Probability tQx Calculator — tool.io

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