Probability First Cause Calculator
Calculate the probability that a given cause of decrement is the first to remove the life, using constant hazards derived from independent annual rates.
Description
Calculate the probability that a given cause of decrement is the first to remove the life, using constant hazards derived from independent annual rates.
Probability First Cause Calculator provides a focused, reproducible calculation with explicit inputs and a deterministic result. Calculate the probability that a given cause of decrement is the first to remove the life, using constant hazards derived from independent annual rates.
Use to find which independent constant-force decrement is first over an unlimited horizon.
When to use Probability First Cause Calculator
Use to find which independent constant-force decrement is first over an unlimited horizon.1
How the calculation works
Calculate the probability that a given cause of decrement is the first to remove the life, using constant hazards derived from independent annual rates.2
P(cause j first) = μj / Σμk Inputs and interpretation
Keep every input on the same valuation, timing, unit, and assumption basis. Interpret the output at the precision supported by those inputs rather than treating extra decimal places as additional certainty.
Limitations and assumptions
The hazard-share result requires compatible independent rates and constant forces; it is not a dependent table rate.
References
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Supplementary Notes for Actuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks — Society of Actuaries
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Actuarial science — Wikipedia contributors
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