Time Dependent Conditional Probability Calculator
Approximate time-dependent rupture probability from a Weibull renewal model, using k = (mean/std. dev.)² and a scale chosen to preserve the supplied mean; this is not a Brownian-passage-time calculation.
Description
Approximate time-dependent rupture probability from a Weibull renewal model, using k = (mean/std. dev.)² and a scale chosen to preserve the supplied mean; this is not a Brownian-passage-time calculation.
Time Dependent Conditional Probability Calculator is a focused tool for the following task. Approximate time-dependent rupture probability from a Weibull renewal model, using k = (mean/std. dev.)² and a scale chosen to preserve the supplied mean; this is not a Brownian-passage-time calculation. It reports P(te,Δt), R/P from the values you provide rather than inventing measurements, coefficients, or professional judgment that are not part of the input.
When to use Time Dependent Conditional Probability
Use this seismology calculation to reproduce a stated convention, screen observations, or compare scenarios whose units, coordinate conventions, catalog selection, and model assumptions are known.
- μ (yr)
- Required number in yr. Mean recurrence interval.
- σ (yr)
- Required number in yr. Recurrence scatter.
- te (yr)
- Required number in yr. Time since last event.
- Δt (yr)
- Required number in yr. Forecast horizon.
The cited overview of Seismology supplies background for the terminology and domain context used by this tool.1
How Time Dependent Conditional Probability works
Approximate time-dependent rupture probability from a Weibull renewal model, using k = (mean/std. dev.)² and a scale chosen to preserve the supplied mean; this is not a Brownian-passage-time calculation. Inputs are interpreted exactly in the displayed units and the calculation returns the following fields without presentation rounding.
- P(te,Δt)
- Returned number. Conditional probability over the window.
- R/P
- Returned number. Conditional vs Poisson hazard ratio.
Limitations and assumptions
- Earth structure, source geometry, path effects, site response, instrument response, catalog completeness, uncertainty, and the fitted range can dominate the accuracy of simplified seismic calculations.
- μ must be at least 0.
- σ must be at least 0.
- te must be at least 0.
- Δt must be at least 0.
- Use finite inputs in the displayed units, preserve source measurements and assumptions, and independently verify consequential decisions.
Alternative or Complementary approaches
For analysis or hazard decisions, retain uncertainty and provenance and compare the result with waveform processing, calibrated regional models, and guidance from qualified seismologists or the responsible agency.
References
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Seismology — Wikipedia contributors
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