School Age Population Projection
Project a school-age cohort to the next planning date with the census survival ratio method: survivors equal the current cohort times l(x+n)/l(x), plus net school-age migrants.
Description
Project a school-age cohort to the next planning date with the census survival ratio method: survivors equal the current cohort times l(x+n)/l(x), plus net school-age migrants.
Project a school-age cohort to the next planning date with the census survival ratio method: survivors equal the current cohort times l(x+n)/l(x), plus net school-age migrants.1
When to use School Age Population Projection
Use this estimator for a transparent scenario based on an explicit base population and stated fertility, mortality, migration, or interpolation assumptions.
- Cohort
- Current population of the school-age group.
- Survival ratio
- Life-table survival ratio for the cohort over the projection interval.
- Net migrants
- Net migrant children in the age group arriving by the target date; may be negative.
How the method works
- Projection
- Projected school-age population at the target date.
- Survivors
- Expected survivors before adding migration.
Limitations and assumptions
A projection is conditional, not a prediction. Uncertainty increases with the horizon, and discontinuities in migration, boundaries, policy, fertility, or mortality can invalidate the assumed path.
Alternative or Complementary measures
Run multiple scenarios and compare them with a cohort-component projection when the necessary fertility, mortality, and migration schedules are available. Sensitivity ranges are more useful than a single extrapolated path.
References
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Population projection — Wikipedia contributors
Similar or alternative tools
- Headship Rate Household Projection
Project the number of households with the headship-rate method: multiply each age group's adult population by its age-specific headship rate and sum across groups.
- Census Date Midyear Conversion
Convert a census count taken on an arbitrary date to a mid-year equivalent by exponential interpolation at an assumed constant annual growth rate over the elapsed days between the two dates.
- Postcensal Intercensal Estimator
Produce a postcensal estimate by the component method (base plus births minus deaths plus net migration since the census) or an intercensal estimate by linear interpolation between two censuses at a stated fraction of the interval.